“Fiscally constrained” is so often used to describe Andy Burnham that one starts to wonder if it is his unfortunate medical condition. And perhaps it is a bleak prognosis. He is the 59th Prime Minister of Britain and the seventh since Brexit, since which time the average tenure of a British PM has been just seventeen months. Is structural uncertainty our zeitgeist? Short-termism binds UK political thinking. We should be scoring Chancellors over the five-year window that has h

People think that Citadel Securities’ public prediction that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would hike base rates caused the collapse of Situational Awareness, and therefore Citadel (the fund) snapping up a rumoured $16bn of Situational Awareness’ public equities book was pre-meditated. This simply isn’t true. Situational Awareness spiralled because it matched a book of short-term instruments against a very long-term investment thesis. Once the markets caught wind that the fund was st

If Andy Burnham comes to power, the issues list he inherits will be harder to swallow than a Kälteen bar. He walks into a fiscal straitjacket, a testy and unforgiving bond market, and green shoots of recovery threatened by a second Middle East flare-up. The UK's increasingly polarised political landscape has chewed through six PMs in the last decade. So, what should his priorities be? The Fall of the It Girl: Why Did Starmer Become So Unpopular? He became PM after a landslide

This article seeks to unpick whether falling Gilt yields in the two and ten-year are correlated to rumours that Andy Burnham may be the next UK Prime Minister. The conclusion is that the key driver was inflation data, but it is a positive that there was little market reaction to Andy Burnham's potential leadership. Let’s quickly set out why changes in Gilt yields are far more complicated - and less of a controlled decision - than changes to the base rate. Really here, I am ta

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